Forecast: winter 2026/27
Latest run:
Read the "import with flood losses" column. It adds the generation lost in the 26 Aug 2026 flood; the models alone can't know about it. In November the loss only cuts exports (Nepal usually exports about 490 GWh that month). From January, every lost GWh becomes import.
River-flow forecast (GloFAS)
A drier late winter means less run-of-river output from January, which adds to the flood losses.
Flood losses used in the forecast
- Lost generation per month = MW × 0.35 (the dry-season output of run-of-river plants) × hours, plus Kulekhani's reduced storage (about 22 GWh, spread over Jan–Apr).
- The range: the top of the range assumes the ~230 MW cut off by destroyed lines stays out all winter; the bottom assumes it reconnects.
- Updates: when NEA restores plants, the register is updated and the forecast re-run.