Analysis: what drives demand and imports

Daily figures use the 612 checked NEA daily reports (Apr 2023 – Jan 2025); all-zero report days are excluded. Every number below is computed live from the data.

1. Seasonality: winter imports are a supply problem

Demand peaks in the monsoon (Jestha–Bhadra), when Nepal exports. Imports happen in Poush–Chaitra (Dec–Apr), when demand is lower but the rivers are low.

Calendar effects: Saturday (the weekend) %; public holidays % vs other days of the same month.

2. Temperature

3. River flow drives generation and imports

Generation follows river flow (r ≈ ) and imports move the opposite way (r ≈ ). The lag curve is flat because the seasonal cycle dominates, so same-day flow plus a 7-day mean is enough.

4. Long-term growth

–: energy grew %/yr and peak %/yr. Energy rises × as fast as GDP (log-log slope, R² ). That growth is why every model carries the latest level forward instead of a long-run average.